Category Archives: Uncategorized

On open letter to Kelly Slater’s call for a Reunion shark cull

Kelly Slater is a surfing legend, he’s also a keen supporter of environmental issues, which is why his recent comments about a shark cull for Reunion Island are so off the mark. However, he has called for evidence to counter … Continue reading

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Save the sharks, they prevent climate change!

We already know and can read about the effects of unsustainable fishing. Reduced catches of cod and more costly fish and chips are just part of the message, which can go as far as to include the ‘jellyfish soup’ predictions … Continue reading

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Champions’ League

I’d like to say that I’ve delayed this post to allow for an update on the predictions of the model – but it really isn’t true, I just haven’t got around to doing it until now. However, all these predictions … Continue reading

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Simple interactions – the rise of UKIP

In my previous post, I made the insinuation that election commentators had no idea who would win the election. Broadly this is true, but of course, when you are paid to write opinion, you have to say more than this. … Continue reading

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Elections again – Bayesian belief networks and combining data types

One method of how to combine different types of data – especially qualitative and quantitative, is to convert both types into belief about a given event. The previous blog posts have demonstrated how to do this using different types of … Continue reading

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Probability of winning an election

While the time to the UK general election is roughly the same as that to the end of the football season (see here), there are considerable differences in the type of data presented on which to make predictions. The biggest … Continue reading

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Who will get to Europe?

The UK football season is just over halfway through its year. The top four teams will qualify for the European Champions league, and that means a lot of money. So, what is the probability that any given team will actually … Continue reading

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Football and Politics – or – combining data types and qualitative and quantitative research for robust predictions

So, this blog has been pretty dormant for a while now, but a New Year (in capitals, so it must be new) and a new intention to actually do something with the blog. I’m going to post a number of … Continue reading

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Managing the marine environment

Managing the marine environment is a difficult process. Not only are there a huge number of interacting factors to consider, from economic, recreation and environmental perspectives, but in terms of the ecology, as most of it is underwater, we don’t … Continue reading

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p values – not a lost cause

An interesting piece in the news section of Nature this week about the problems of statistical tests using p values to determine significance. http://www.nature.com/news/scientific-method-statistical-errors-1.14700?WT.mc_id=PIN_NatureNews The underlying nature of the piece is that p values are unreliable. The headlines of the … Continue reading

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